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21 replies to this topic

#1
elf_cruiser

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Hey, I know a lot of you are traders and retail investors like myself. Anyone worried about the recent action and spikes in volatility?
I have a weird feeling we might be seeing the beginning of a bear mkt finally. It will take a few months to play out if it does happen. My low end target for the SnP is 1500-1600 area if we do get a new bear mkt. FAZ, TZA, and SDS would be my favorites to hold during the downturn. Or a safer way to play is to write bearish option spreads against any of the Bull ETF’s.

Thoughts? Ideas?
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2010 GT-R - Matte Gray, AP/Carbotech, BSE trans cooler, BSE tune on ECUTek, H&R sways, AMSOIL, NASA-AZ TT2 and occasional DD
1976 FJ-40 Rock Buggy - tube chassis, LQ4, 700R4, NP205, Rockwells, F&R hydraulic steering, Fox, Ballistic, lots of 4130, 7068, and AR400

2001 Ford Excursion - V10, DD and occasional tow rig

facebook.com/DangerousEnterprises

Do want someday - Radical, 599 GTB w/FHP, 430 Scud, Superlite Coupe, FF Type 65 Coupe


#2
Tim

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You only loose if you sell :) We needed a correction and that’s what I see this as, the economy is doing well gas prices show us that. Will be interesting to see if Trumps tax cuts and companies willing to up pay and reinvest in their $$ back in their company,should play out well IMO.
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#3
shawnhayes

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Hey, I know a lot of you are traders and retail investors like myself. Anyone worried about the recent action and spikes in volatility?
I have a weird feeling we might be seeing the beginning of a bear mkt finally. It will take a few months to play out if it does happen. My low end target for the SnP is 1500-1600 area if we do get a new bear mkt. FAZ, TZA, and SDS would be my favorites to hold during the downturn. Or a safer way to play is to write bearish option spreads against any of the Bull ETF’s.

Thoughts? Ideas?

 

Took my short to mid term stock investments out of the market in August.  I saw it coming.  Could have made more by holding in a little longer, but felt the pressure.  I put them all against debt servicing and increased equity and decreased debt - insurance against increased interest rate.

 

Good luck to those who stay in.  My plan wiil be to wait 18 months and re-buy if things are stable.

 

Shawn


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#4
7racer

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I think its a correction...so does my FP.

 

but my general philosophy is to stay in it...not due to timing the down turn...its just that statistically most people miss the ride back up.


  • elf_cruiser likes this

In7anity!!


#5
elf_cruiser

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Took my short to mid term stock investments out of the market in August. I saw it coming. Could have made more by holding in a little longer, but felt the pressure. I put them all against debt servicing and increased equity and decreased debt - insurance against increased interest rate.

Good luck to those who stay in. My plan wiil be to wait 18 months and re-buy if things are stable.

Shawn


Very very smart move!
I handle my parents’ investments and did the same for them over the last year. Their $ is 90% fixed income and 10% equities since last summer. I will rebalance if the SnP hits my target above.

2010 GT-R - Matte Gray, AP/Carbotech, BSE trans cooler, BSE tune on ECUTek, H&R sways, AMSOIL, NASA-AZ TT2 and occasional DD
1976 FJ-40 Rock Buggy - tube chassis, LQ4, 700R4, NP205, Rockwells, F&R hydraulic steering, Fox, Ballistic, lots of 4130, 7068, and AR400

2001 Ford Excursion - V10, DD and occasional tow rig

facebook.com/DangerousEnterprises

Do want someday - Radical, 599 GTB w/FHP, 430 Scud, Superlite Coupe, FF Type 65 Coupe


#6
elf_cruiser

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I think its a correction...so does my FP.

but my general philosophy is to stay in it...not due to timing the down turn...its just that statistically most people miss the ride back up.


Also very good points, I would however caution you that FP’s are compensated by the amount of funds under their portfolio - so in other words they are financially motivated to keep your $ in the market all the time. The only issue I have with being forever long is that what happens if you had planned to retire in 2000 or 2005 or 2009? You’d have been fucked...
  • 7racer likes this

2010 GT-R - Matte Gray, AP/Carbotech, BSE trans cooler, BSE tune on ECUTek, H&R sways, AMSOIL, NASA-AZ TT2 and occasional DD
1976 FJ-40 Rock Buggy - tube chassis, LQ4, 700R4, NP205, Rockwells, F&R hydraulic steering, Fox, Ballistic, lots of 4130, 7068, and AR400

2001 Ford Excursion - V10, DD and occasional tow rig

facebook.com/DangerousEnterprises

Do want someday - Radical, 599 GTB w/FHP, 430 Scud, Superlite Coupe, FF Type 65 Coupe


#7
7racer

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Also very good points, I would however caution you that FP’s are compensated by the amount of funds under their portfolio - so in other words they are financially motivated to keep your $ in the market all the time. The only issue I have with being forever long is that what happens if you had planned to retire in 2000 or 2005 or 2009? You’d have been fucked...

 

lol remember I took CFP classes for 3 years! and hopefully if you were planning to retire in the next couple years, you would have already been adjusting your portfolio to more fixed income, with less exposure to the stock market changes 


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In7anity!!


#8
elf_cruiser

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I didn’t know that!
Doctor, mountaineer, racecar driver, and financial guru huh?
  • 7racer likes this

2010 GT-R - Matte Gray, AP/Carbotech, BSE trans cooler, BSE tune on ECUTek, H&R sways, AMSOIL, NASA-AZ TT2 and occasional DD
1976 FJ-40 Rock Buggy - tube chassis, LQ4, 700R4, NP205, Rockwells, F&R hydraulic steering, Fox, Ballistic, lots of 4130, 7068, and AR400

2001 Ford Excursion - V10, DD and occasional tow rig

facebook.com/DangerousEnterprises

Do want someday - Radical, 599 GTB w/FHP, 430 Scud, Superlite Coupe, FF Type 65 Coupe


#9
7racer

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I didn’t know that!
Doctor, mountaineer, racecar driver, and financial guru huh?

 

lol no...like the stereotype, doctors are terrible with their money....I remember finishing training and I had all these people coming out of the wood works trying to sell me a whole life policy.  I had no clue what that was or why I needed it besides what they were saying to me.  So when I had time, I decided to take financial planning classes at SMU.  I kinda stuck out like a sore thumb in class because everyone else was doing it for the degree....I was just doing it for fun.


In7anity!!


#10
shawnhayes

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Very very smart move!
I handle my parents’ investments and did the same for them over the last year. Their $ is 90% fixed income and 10% equities since last summer. I will rebalance if the SnP hits my target above.

 

A big downside - I will have to pay taxes on all my gains when withdrawn.  The tax will be significant.  Damn.  No way to win all the time.

 

Shawn



#11
gtrguyinaz

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Pay the tax and be glad. Pick out the stocks that will benefit best with lower corp tax rates and........

Sell puts or begin to buy as they cross the 200 day moving average.....

Build a ladder  to buy in steps , you don't really know the bottom ....... and DON'T CHASE PRICE..........



#12
7racer

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there is a weird thing about that 200day MA number

 

some financial planners use it.  If the market is below 5% you get out, if above 3% then you get in.

 

you can get this on yahoo finance or MSN.com

 

it seems to work......


In7anity!!


#13
droptopp

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I typically track against Bollinger bands.

I’m pretty aggressive/suicidal with my solo 401k in primarily PRGTX. Last year return was 47% and 5 year average 28%.

Not bitcoin, but blows up the rule of 7. Tried explaining that to a son who holds some bitcoin from back in the day.

My son is starting his first Metcalf Internship this summer and the consulting firms open to UChicago Econ/Math student blow my mind. Shit I would have done back in the day to get those opportunities.
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GTX3582R built and tuned by STM, AMS 4.1, Omega billet crank, Alpha Cams, STM DP, MP, 4 STM Titanium custom exhaust, STM Race FMIC 22x18x4.5, full 3" piping, ID 2000, Sheptrans OneK drop gears, DS axles, E85, Advan GT 10/12 285/315 R888 / MT ET 18x10/12 TE37 Saga MT ET SS 275/245.
Heartbreaker Mustang 1186 E70 low boost. Dynojet 1350 +/- 60-130 3.5 seconds. 100-150 3.4 seconds.

#14
descartesfool

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My take is it's just a correction due to the market being somewhat over-valued but not crazy overvalued based on expected economic growth and very low return rate from other types of investments, and interest rates going up due to economic conditions, which includes super low unemployment and wage growth. As I was holding a lot of cash, I was buying on Friday morning, stocks I was looking at being 10-16% down from their highs, and also bought some index ETF's. I consider the economy worldwide is doing well, and the US GDP growth is going to be good, which combined with the corporate tax cuts will lower the P/E from the recent highs, so things will be looking better by the end of the year. No thoughts the S&P is going to the 1500-1600 level. I din't sell anything low these last 2 weeks, i just bought low. But I was holding cash waiting for a correction, and for me the major indices going down 10% means it's a good time to consider buying. But not all in for sure.

 

Remember it's not timing the market, it's time in the market. And when everyone is selling, it might be time to be buying.


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#15
gtrguyinaz

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My take is it's just a correction due to the market being somewhat over-valued but not crazy overvalued based on expected economic growth and very low return rate from other types of investments, and interest rates going up due to economic conditions, which includes super low unemployment and wage growth. As I was holding a lot of cash, I was buying on Friday morning, stocks I was looking at being 10-16% down from their highs, and also bought some index ETF's. I consider the economy worldwide is doing well, and the US GDP growth is going to be good, which combined with the corporate tax cuts will lower the P/E from the recent highs, so things will be looking better by the end of the year. No thoughts the S&P is going to the 1500-1600 level. I din't sell anything low these last 2 weeks, i just bought low. But I was holding cash waiting for a correction, and for me the major indices going down 10% means it's a good time to consider buying. But not all in for sure.

 

Remember it's not timing the market, it's time in the market. And when everyone is selling, it might be time to be buying.

Both time in market and timing are ways to play.Just have % stops so profit is not given back.



#16
droptopp

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PE’s for most stocks are not crazy right now. Report Data and Fundamentals are solid. The economy is rolling and no way the fear of FED raising rates caused this volatility.

The swings I think are the guys that were holding VIX that lost anywhere beaten 75-98% of value last two weeks and trying to recoup.
GTX3582R built and tuned by STM, AMS 4.1, Omega billet crank, Alpha Cams, STM DP, MP, 4 STM Titanium custom exhaust, STM Race FMIC 22x18x4.5, full 3" piping, ID 2000, Sheptrans OneK drop gears, DS axles, E85, Advan GT 10/12 285/315 R888 / MT ET 18x10/12 TE37 Saga MT ET SS 275/245.
Heartbreaker Mustang 1186 E70 low boost. Dynojet 1350 +/- 60-130 3.5 seconds. 100-150 3.4 seconds.

#17
7racer

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What are you’d going to use to know when to get back in....for those not riding it out

In7anity!!


#18
gtrguyinaz

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PE’s for most stocks are not crazy right now. Report Data and Fundamentals are solid. The economy is rolling and no way the fear of FED raising rates caused this volatility.

The swings I think are the guys that were holding VIX that lost anywhere beaten 75-98% of value last two weeks and trying to recoup.

This what has happened......ETN 's with VIX  component............. Now is the time to start getting back in.......If you want to be sure........wait till the vix is steady in the low 20's high teens.

Build a ladder..........


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#19
shawnhayes

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What are you’d going to use to know when to get back in....for those not riding it out

 

Six month correction stability.  Time to get back in if it doesn't do anything stupid, like go straight back up to where it was.

 

Shawn


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#20
descartesfool

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My take is to buy back in now after the 10% correction with regular buys on a monthly basis with 10-20% per month of the cash I have. Mostly buying index ETF's, Nasdaq100 and S&P 500, and some companies I think have a giant moat around them, like Visa, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and even Home Depot. Actually I bough a bunch of Home Depot as soon as the hurricane started. My sister lives in Houston and when she texted me how bad it was, I told her to buy Home Depot like I was doing, and she did, suffering and being happy at the same time. It's been a good buy so far. And she since bought a new house there, and new hardwood flooring came from Home Depot. All good.


Edited by descartesfool, 11 February 2018 - 07:51 PM.

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